Germany After Angela Merkel. Is The Green Party Neo-Liberalism in Disguise?
The Deutschlandtrend poll points to the Green party being in the lead four months before elections which might bring an unprecedented situation in the German political life.
Since the unification of Germany, the government has been led by leaders from either the conservative union of CDU/CSU or from social democratic SPD, however, the next election could be historic and bring victory for the Green Party and its chancellor nominee Annalena Baerbock. At first, the rise of the Greens was seen as the great hope for the environmental movements across the world, but the real “kick in the guts” was the realization that their policies are not that green, left, and inclusive, but pro-capitalist, neo-liberal and neo-imperialist.
Farewell to Angela Merkel
After 15 years, the Merkel era came to an end. Angela Merkel has led four cabinets and created an immense legacy for both German and international politics. Her leadership was marked by the successful steering of her country and fragile countries of the EU south during the crisis of 2008. Nevertheless, some events, such as the immigrant crisis in 2015, have severely shaken her leadership.
Angela Merkel can be described as “a mistress of consensus and, when it suits her, delay” when it comes to international relations. Therefore, the question of her successor brings uncertainty over German foreign policy as well.
Merkel’s successor in the CDU and nominee for the chancellor is Armin Laschet, while the SPD has nominated Olaf Scholz. Both Laschet and Scholz are in a challenging situation since the CDU is facing inter-party turmoils and the SPD is not in a favorable position according to the polls.
However, if either Laschet or Scholz becomes the next chancellor, German foreign policy is not going to change that much. Considering that both Laschet and Scholz are followers of Merkel’s approach, neither of them is going to step down from beneficial deals with Russia and China, specifically Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline for which Merkel herself was criticized.
Rise of The Greens
The rising actor in German political life is Annalena Baerbock and her Green Party. Many regard Baerbock as being the new Angela Merkel but the eventual success of the Green Party will certainly bring a u-turn in many of the spheres of German political life.
When the Greens joined SPD’s coalition 20 years ago and partook in the government, their role was minor. But the Green Party of today and its co-leader have been surprised with their style and stability. Baerbock has openly said that she is in for the renewal instead of continuing the status quo, which may be the perfect description of Merkel’s cabinets.
Domestically, the Green Party has announced that they will “revise Germany’s so-called debt brake” which will be a huge change in the German fiscal policy. Hence, the potential Green-led cabinet will increase investments and spendings.
One of the reasons for the rise of the Green Party may lay in the fact that the Greens are more pragmatic and ready to make consensus on many policies, but at the same time want to offer a different political narrative than Angela Merkel did. Moreover, the party that once based its program on anti-NATO and anti-imperial policies has now changed its course, and Baerbock is willing to get closer to the USA and its President Biden.
What Would Foreign Policy Look Like With Baerbock as Chancellor?
The question is — what policies would Baerbock prefer if she actually became the chancellor? Foreign policy in particular has caught international attention.
There is a huge difference in the approach of the leading CDU/CSU/SPD coalition to foreign policy and the Greens. While all sides in Germany are devoted to strong Europe and cooperation, the Greens also emphasize the importance of trans-Atlantic cooperation. Another crucial distinction is the Greens’ similarities with the US policies. Therefore, the important question for international affairs is whether Germany with the Greens in power and Baerbock as chancellor will leave the moderate and consensus foreign policy that marked the Merkel era?
The consequence of this turn in German foreign policy could have great implications on the world order and security. So far, Germany has been a voice of reason recognizing that conflict between the West, China, and Russia is far from beneficial for most of the countries.
President Biden’s push to counter China and Russia and to restore the US supremacy in the world was not recognized as that important amongst the European powers, especially Germany which continued business affairs with both China and Russia. On the other side, “the Greens are more likely to take a critical approach toward Russia and China” thus following Joe Biden’s approach to the rising power of these countries.
The Greens are being criticized for their consensus on the issues that are contested with the environmental goals. Bearbock wants to bring new industries to Germany and to protect the German capitalist elite, while at the same time the Green party has never been more detached from the working class. It is, nevertheless, an unprecedented situation that the Greens support NATO, globalism, and neo-imperialism by linking their foreign policy to the US.
Germany is without a question the leading European power and its foreign policy shapes foreign policy of the EU as well. Therefore, Baerbock’s chancellery could lead to the cold relationship with Russia and China and could jeopardize numerous projects which are of great importance for Germany and whole Europe. Most importantly, it could pose a great threat to the security of the European Union as it could push the EU into the hands of the US which has a tradition of patronizing relationship towards Europe.
